The oil-producing country agreement failed to sell oil prices without fear that the market tone is still weak metal pressure

Time：2016-06-03 10:59:21 Source：江西保太集團-江西保太有色金屬集團有限公司 View Rate：11066

Summary：

China:

China's supply-side reforms continued to advance, and de-leveraging actions were implemented in depth. With the increasingly prominent debt problems of overcapacity industries such as coal and steel, the game between local governments and financial institutions has also accelerated.

According to media reports, many provinces are currently deploying rules or oral guidance to resolve the debt risks of related industries, trying to support enterprises through various means, but financial institutions have adopted “strictly controlled new additions to relevant industries. The way, the attitudes of local governments and financial institutions are completely different, which undoubtedly exacerbates the difficulty of overcapacity in related industries.

United States:

The US ADP employment data for May was slightly better than expected, but not as good as the previous value. The market expects that the US May non-farm payroll data released today may not perform well. However, analysts also pointed out that because the previous US Verizon Telecom company had a one-month strike, directly affecting 35,000 jobs, due to this special factor, non-agricultural products should be treated differently even if they do not perform well. Not enough as a reference for raising interest rates in June or July. In addition, the reduction in jobs caused by the downturn in the energy and manufacturing sectors is also a factor.

The quality of the US job market should also focus on the unemployment rate and salary growth. At the same time, the number of US initial jobless claims has been under 300,000 for 65 consecutive weeks, and the US labor market remains stable.

Europe:

As crude oil prices continued to rise during the year, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi slightly raised the eurozone inflation expectations, but because the eurozone inflation performance remained low, Draghi said that the ECB will use any possible tools when necessary. At present, in addition to the plan to purchase corporate bonds on June 8 and the first-time TLTRO for the first time on June 22, more stimulus measures are expected in the future.

The downturn in inflation in the euro zone is also reflected in the data released overnight. The data shows that the annual PPI rate in the euro zone fell by 4.4% in April, still not as expected. In this regard, Draghi believes that the ECB inflation may continue to remain at a low level or even a negative value in the coming months.

Related Markets:

Although the major oil producers are expected to formulate a production cap agreement or a production quota system before the results of the oil producers meeting, the final result is still no agreement. Fortunately, last week, EIA crude oil inventories and production continued to decline. US EIA crude oil inventories fell three times in the past four weeks. US crude oil production also recorded a decline for 12 consecutive weeks, and refreshed the new low in September 2014, boosting the US oil 07 contract. After returning to the gains.

The reason why the agreement has not yet reached any agreement, the reason given by OPEC members is that no action has gradually restored the balance of supply and demand of crude oil, and raised the price of oil, it should remain the same.

However, despite the lack of achievements in this meeting, there are still bright spots. Compared with the last meeting of Saudi Arabia, the new Saudi energy minister, Falih, said that Saudi Arabia will not increase production. Iranian Oil Minister Shan Ghani also said that he expects other OPEC members will not increase production.

[Industry data]

In terms of inventory, on June 2, LME global copper stocks decreased by 825 tons to 153,525 tons. Among Asian copper stocks, South Korea's Busan decreased by 100 tons to 18,525 tons, and Malaysia's Johor reduced by 75 tons to 23,075 tons, and the rest remained unchanged. ,

LME copper canceled 50,475 tons of warehouse receipts, accounting for 32.88%.

In terms of external disk premium and discount, on June 2, LME spot copper increased by 17 US dollars/ton for three-month copper, which was larger than the increase of 15.25 US dollars/ton on June 1.